Weekly Market UpdateWeek of Sep 14, 2026Sep 11, 2026
Commodities Post Their Best Year-to-Date Run in 20 Years
Broad commodities (DBC) are up +48.3% year to date through September 11 — the strongest comparable January-to-September return in the 20 comparable years available (2007–2026) — while the S&P 500's Strong trend holds even as sector participation and constituent breadth both narrowed this week.
Three Things to Know This Week
Trend intact
Strong Trend · Low & Falling Risk · Near Trend
- Breadth was 58.4% above the 200-day average in the current Sep 11 recomputation; archived readings support the qualitative narrowing conclusion but are not treated as a like-for-like delta.
- Only 31.6% of constituents held above all three moving averages.
Commodities lead
DBC +48.3% YTD · #1 of 20 comparable years
- Best comparable Jan–Sep return of the 20 comparable years available (100th percentile).
- Strength is concentrated outside gold: GLD is +0.6% YTD over the same window.
Sector participation weakened
3 of 11 S&P 500 sectors advanced WTD
- Energy led (+1.7% WTD, +47.7% YTD); Health Care lagged (-3.6% WTD).
- 9 of 11 sectors remain positive YTD — the weekly pullback was broad but shallow.
State of the Stock Market
S&P 500 ·
Trend: Strong
Risk
Low & Falling
From 52-week high
—
Position
Near Trend
Relative to the S&P 500's own 200-day trend history
Distance from trend
- S&P 500 crossed back above its 50-day average on Sep 11 after one session below it.
- Breadth narrowed to 58.4% of constituents above their 200-day average, from 61.6% a week earlier.
Cross-asset performance
Total returns across core market exposures and horizons, shown side by side through September 11, 2026.
Tip: click any ticker to analyze it.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad commoditiesDBC | Broad commodities, Week to date: up 3.9 percent | Broad commodities, Month to date: up 5.9 percent | Broad commodities, Quarter to date: up 24.4 percent | Broad commodities, Year to date: up 48.3 percent | Broad commodities, 1 year: up 54.3 percent | Broad commodities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 14.5 percent | Broad commodities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 14.5 percent | Broad commodities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.3 percent |
| Emerging marketsEEM | Emerging markets, Week to date: down 1.3 percent | Emerging markets, Month to date: up 1.2 percent | Emerging markets, Quarter to date: down 0.8 percent | Emerging markets, Year to date: up 24.6 percent | Emerging markets, 1 year: up 32.3 percent | Emerging markets, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 23.0 percent | Emerging markets, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.8 percent | Emerging markets, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 8.7 percent |
| U.S. small companiesIJR | U.S. small companies, Week to date: down 2.2 percent | U.S. small companies, Month to date: down 1.6 percent | U.S. small companies, Quarter to date: down 4.1 percent | U.S. small companies, Year to date: up 18.9 percent | U.S. small companies, 1 year: up 19.9 percent | U.S. small companies, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.2 percent | U.S. small companies, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.1 percent | U.S. small companies, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.5 percent |
| International developedEFA | International developed, Week to date: down 1.5 percent | International developed, Month to date: down 0.7 percent | International developed, Quarter to date: up 2.7 percent | International developed, Year to date: up 12.9 percent | International developed, 1 year: up 18.2 percent | International developed, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 18.1 percent | International developed, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 9.0 percent | International developed, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.4 percent |
| U.S. equitiesIVV | U.S. equities, Week to date: down 0.8 percent | U.S. equities, Month to date: down 0.4 percent | U.S. equities, Quarter to date: up 2.5 percent | U.S. equities, Year to date: up 12.7 percent | U.S. equities, 1 year: up 17.6 percent | U.S. equities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 21.0 percent | U.S. equities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.0 percent | U.S. equities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 15.5 percent |
| Real estateVNQ | Real estate, Week to date: down 1.3 percent | Real estate, Month to date: down 1.7 percent | Real estate, Quarter to date: down 1.7 percent | Real estate, Year to date: up 9.2 percent | Real estate, 1 year: up 5.6 percent | Real estate, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 9.4 percent | Real estate, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 1.5 percent | Real estate, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 5.1 percent |
| High-yield creditHYG | High-yield credit, Week to date: down 0.7 percent | High-yield credit, Month to date: down 1.0 percent | High-yield credit, Quarter to date: down 0.2 percent | High-yield credit, Year to date: up 1.5 percent | High-yield credit, 1 year: up 2.9 percent | High-yield credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 7.9 percent | High-yield credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 3.5 percent | High-yield credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 4.5 percent |
| GoldGLD | Gold, Week to date: down 2.0 percent | Gold, Month to date: down 2.4 percent | Gold, Quarter to date: up 8.2 percent | Gold, Year to date: up 0.6 percent | Gold, 1 year: up 19.1 percent | Gold, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 30.7 percent | Gold, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 19.0 percent | Gold, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 12.1 percent |
| U.S. aggregate bondsAGG | U.S. aggregate bonds, Week to date: down 1.1 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Month to date: down 1.1 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Quarter to date: down 2.0 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Year to date: down 1.3 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 1 year: down 0.7 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 4.0 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 0.5 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 1.3 percent |
| Investment-grade creditLQD | Investment-grade credit, Week to date: down 1.1 percent | Investment-grade credit, Month to date: down 1.4 percent | Investment-grade credit, Quarter to date: down 3.2 percent | Investment-grade credit, Year to date: down 2.4 percent | Investment-grade credit, 1 year: down 2.7 percent | Investment-grade credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 4.5 percent | Investment-grade credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 1.2 percent | Investment-grade credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 2.0 percent |
| Long-duration TreasuriesTLT | Long-duration Treasuries, Week to date: down 1.6 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Month to date: down 1.6 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Quarter to date: down 5.3 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Year to date: down 4.4 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 1 year: down 6.4 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 3 years annualised, annualised: down 0.7 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 8.3 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 10 years annualised, annualised: down 2.3 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Sep 11, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
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Investment styles
Total returns across key factor and style exposures, shown side by side through September 11, 2026.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MomentumMTUM | Momentum, Week to date: up 0.7 percent | Momentum, Month to date: up 2.4 percent | Momentum, Quarter to date: down 5.7 percent | Momentum, Year to date: up 20.6 percent | Momentum, 1 year: up 26.6 percent | Momentum, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 29.2 percent | Momentum, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 12.4 percent | Momentum, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 16.4 percent |
| Small ValueIJS | Small Value, Week to date: down 2.1 percent | Small Value, Month to date: down 1.4 percent | Small Value, Quarter to date: down 1.5 percent | Small Value, Year to date: up 19.1 percent | Small Value, 1 year: up 22.1 percent | Small Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.3 percent | Small Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.1 percent | Small Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.0 percent |
| Small GrowthIJT | Small Growth, Week to date: down 2.3 percent | Small Growth, Month to date: down 1.9 percent | Small Growth, Quarter to date: down 6.8 percent | Small Growth, Year to date: up 18.3 percent | Small Growth, 1 year: up 17.6 percent | Small Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 14.8 percent | Small Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 5.7 percent | Small Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.5 percent |
| Mid GrowthIJK | Mid Growth, Week to date: down 1.7 percent | Mid Growth, Month to date: down 1.4 percent | Mid Growth, Quarter to date: down 5.1 percent | Mid Growth, Year to date: up 15.4 percent | Mid Growth, 1 year: up 15.0 percent | Mid Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.2 percent | Mid Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.4 percent | Mid Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.9 percent |
| Large GrowthIVW | Large Growth, Week to date: down 0.9 percent | Large Growth, Month to date: down 0.2 percent | Large Growth, Quarter to date: up 1.3 percent | Large Growth, Year to date: up 13.2 percent | Large Growth, 1 year: up 17.7 percent | Large Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 25.5 percent | Large Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.1 percent | Large Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 17.8 percent |
| Large ValueIVE | Large Value, Week to date: down 0.6 percent | Large Value, Month to date: down 0.5 percent | Large Value, Quarter to date: up 3.6 percent | Large Value, Year to date: up 11.8 percent | Large Value, 1 year: up 17.1 percent | Large Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.4 percent | Large Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 11.7 percent | Large Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.9 percent |
| Equal WeightRSP | Equal Weight, Week to date: down 1.9 percent | Equal Weight, Month to date: down 2.6 percent | Equal Weight, Quarter to date: up 2.2 percent | Equal Weight, Year to date: up 11.8 percent | Equal Weight, 1 year: up 15.9 percent | Equal Weight, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.2 percent | Equal Weight, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.7 percent | Equal Weight, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 12.0 percent |
| Mid ValueIJJ | Mid Value, Week to date: down 2.0 percent | Mid Value, Month to date: down 0.9 percent | Mid Value, Quarter to date: down 1.7 percent | Mid Value, Year to date: up 11.1 percent | Mid Value, 1 year: up 11.5 percent | Mid Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 13.7 percent | Mid Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.8 percent | Mid Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.3 percent |
| QualityQUAL | Quality, Week to date: down 1.1 percent | Quality, Month to date: down 1.5 percent | Quality, Quarter to date: up 3.1 percent | Quality, Year to date: up 10.0 percent | Quality, 1 year: up 17.5 percent | Quality, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 18.3 percent | Quality, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 11.0 percent | Quality, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 14.4 percent |
| Minimum VolatilityUSMV | Minimum Volatility, Week to date: down 1.2 percent | Minimum Volatility, Month to date: down 2.1 percent | Minimum Volatility, Quarter to date: up 3.8 percent | Minimum Volatility, Year to date: up 5.5 percent | Minimum Volatility, 1 year: up 7.6 percent | Minimum Volatility, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 11.9 percent | Minimum Volatility, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.1 percent | Minimum Volatility, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.3 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Sep 11, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
Chart of the Week
Broad Commodities vs. S&P 500 — Cumulative Total Return, YTD 2026
- Broad commodities (DBC)
- U.S. equities (IVV)
- Year start
- Quarter start
Cumulative total return for broad commodities (DBC) and U.S. equities (IVV), both rebased to 0.0% at December 31, 2025. · Data through Sep 11, 2026
Deep Dive
The Commodity Run in Historical Context
Broad commodities (DBC) posted +48.3% year to date through September 11 — the strongest comparable January-to-September return in the 20 comparable years available (2007–2026).
- Ranks #1 of 20 comparable years (100th percentile); next-highest is 2021 at +31.7%.
- Not a gold story: GLD is +0.6% YTD over the same window, -2.0% this week.
- Energy (XLE) led all S&P 500 sectors this week (+1.7%) and is +47.7% YTD — the strength is energy- and industrial-commodity-led.
- On a full calendar-year basis (chart below), 2026's partial-year return already exceeds every prior year except 2021 (+41.4%) and 2007 (+31.6%); the two largest declines were 2014 (-28.1%) and 2015 (-27.6%).
2007+31.6%
2008-31.8%
2009+16.2%
2010+11.9%
2011-2.6%
2012+3.5%
2013-7.6%
2014-28.1%
2015-27.6%
2016+18.6%
2017+4.9%
2018-11.6%
2019+11.8%
2020-7.8%
2021+41.4%
2022+19.3%
2023-6.2%
2024+2.2%
2025+8.1%
2026 (YTD thru Sep 11)+48.3%
2026 is a partial year, through September 11, 2026 — not a completed calendar year. All other years are full calendar-year total returns. · Data through Sep 11, 2026
Three Things We're Watching
Does broad-commodity leadership persist or broaden into a third consecutive month?
- September MTD (+5.9%) already exceeds the median full-year DBC return in this sample.
Does S&P 500 breadth stabilize, or continue narrowing while the index trend stays Strong?
- 58.4% above the 200-day average — the first week in several to diverge from the index trend by more than two points.
Does small-cap underperformance persist into a second week, or was this a single-session move?
- IJR -2.2% WTD vs. IVV -0.8% WTD this week.
Notes & methodology
Weekly, computed from total-return adjusted closes through the stated data-through date. One investable ETF proxy is tracked per exposure; IVV represents broad U.S. equities.
Momentum, Quality, Minimum Volatility and Equal Weight (MTUM/QUAL/USMV/RSP) are sourced from the app's weekly ETF return layer; their 1-day return is withheld rather than shown as zero. Breadth direction (Narrowing) is derived from the app's editorial-run archive, which begins 2026-08-11; the nearest available comparison dates are used and stated explicitly rather than assumed to be exactly 1 or 4 weeks prior.
AI assistance. This issue was prepared with AI-assisted research and drafting and reviewed by TrendToWealth before publication.
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